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发表于 19-8-2010 04:13 PM
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不要吵了， 有坏消息给打工仔！！！
Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysia’s economy grew near the fastest pace in a decade in the second quarter, an expansion that may prompt the central bank to consider raising interest rates further.
Gross domestic product increased 8.9 percent in the three months through June from a year earlier, after expanding 10.1 percent in the first quarter, the central bank said yesterday. That was higher than the 8.4 percent median forecast of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Growth may exceed 6 percent this year, Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz said.
Malaysia’s central bank has raised interest rates three times this year, and policy makers will deliberate in two weeks if the economy is strong enough to withstand higher borrowing costs as threats to the world recovery grow. Weaker-than- expected economic growth in Japan and slower expansion in the U.S. and China have added to signs that the global rebound may ease, threatening demand for Asia’s goods.
“It is a very strong first-half performance and it will be a very respectable performance for Malaysia this year,” said Enrico Tanuwidjaja, an economist at OSK-DMG Group in Singapore. “We see a moderation coming in the second half because of monetary policy tightening and the pullback in external demand. It’s going to be a close call but we are leaning on one more rate hike” in September, he said.
Ringgit Climbs
The economy’s expansion has boosted the Malaysian ringgit, spurring the currency to a gain of 9 percent against the dollar and 22 percent against the euro this year, the best performance in Asia excluding Japan. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index gained for a fourth day yesterday and has added 8.9 percent this year.
Malaysia wants “orderly adjustments” of the ringgit, which has appreciated in line with economic fundamentals and hasn’t deviated significantly from the rest of the region over the past two years, Zeti said yesterday. The central bank announced an easing of regulations in the nation’s foreign- exchange markets to help lower transaction costs of external trade, taking a step closer to making the ringgit a freely- traded currency. 其实是因为国债太高要靠提高马币来减轻国债，sia sui 下
“Given that the ringgit is the top performer in emerging Asia year-to-date, this looks like approval of its gains,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, an economist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong. “The comments and further opening of the foreign-exchange market look like an invitation to further gains.”
Interest Rates
Economists are divided on whether Bank Negara Malaysia will raise rates again this year after leading most Asian central banks in increasing borrowing costs. Zeti, who raised the benchmark rate to 2.75 percent in July, said yesterday the current rate “is consistent and appropriate to the outlook for growth and inflation.” 利息提高的话就要付多点利息给银行，但是人工又不起。。
Malaysia’s policy makers next meet on Sept. 2 to decide on rates. The inflation rate climbed in July to 1.9 percent, the highest level in 14 months, a report from the statistics department showed yesterday.
DBS Group Holdings Ltd. says the central bank may raise interest rates once more this year, while economists at Standard Chartered Plc and Credit Agricole’s Kowalczyk are among those expecting rates to be left unchanged for the rest of the year.
“Even at 3 percent, we don’t see that as a tightening measure but the end of normalization,” OSK-DMG’s Tanuwidjaja said. “We think it is consistent with the growth outlook and inflation wouldn’t be a threat.”
Manufacturing Growth
Malaysia’s manufacturing industry grew 15.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier and exports of goods and services gained 13.8 percent, according to yesterday’s report.
The central bank in March forecast economic growth of as much as 5.5 percent in 2010, from a 1.7 percent contraction last year. An expansion of 6 percent this year is “achievable,” Prime Minister Najib Razak has said.
“Given the strong growth in the first half of the year, we believe that the growth for the year will exceed 6 percent and therefore we will see a reasonable rate of growth in the second half of the year, despite the slowing of growth in the advanced economies,” Zeti said yesterday. “Our domestic growth will be key in supporting this growth.” 奇怪为什么国家有growth, 但是人民的工资还是不能catch up 生活水平，反而东西越来越贵。。
The Federal Reserve last week described the U.S. recovery as likely to be weaker than anticipated, while China’s import and industrial production growth both cooled in July. Japan’s economy expanded at less than a fifth of the pace economists estimated last quarter.
Still, some companies such as Eng Teknologi Holdings Bhd., a Malaysian hard-disk drive maker whose clients include Western Digital Corp. and Seagate Technology, are optimistic global demand will hold up in the coming quarters.
While industry shipments for the second quarter of 2010 were “seasonally lower,” the ensuing quarters should “improve gradually to normal demand trend,” said Chee Hock Leong, Chief Financial Officer of Eng Teknologi. “Hard-disk drive shipments are expected to grow double digit year-on-year” from the 2009 level, he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Shamim Adam in Singapore at sadam2@bloomberg.net; Ranjeetha Pakiam in Kuala Lumpur at rpakiam@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: August 18, 2010 12:01 EDT |
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