【~~kinwing~~个人专区】长期投资的旅程

江百虎

原帖由 pya_ch 于 10-10-2007 10:28 AM 发表
其实我觉得你不应该没车就放弃对你喜欢的人的追求,
如果她真的是这样来评断一个人,
那失去未尝不是种幸福(得罪莫怪)
这是我的看法,共勉之,
我现在的女朋友就不怎么在意车的问题了,
所以加油,不要因为自己的 ...

人們要結婚的時候，在教堂里面都會說。。。不論以后是貧窮或是富有，健康還是疾病，都發誓要一輩子相愛相守。。。可嘆的是現在的社會這樣的人已經快要絕種了。。。

急功近利，把愛情當成買賣的人會比較多吧。。。

kinwing

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 2-11-2007 11:57 PM 发表


最近Supermax有点麻烦，小心小心。。。

请来我的帖看看。。。
http://chinese3.cari.com.my/myforum/viewthread.php?tid=1022763&extra=page%3D1&page=1

最近亚太工业(简称为"APLI"的帐目调整事件的确令人感到懊恼 ，但这也在我的预料之中。因为APLI在SUPERMAX还未掌控其管理层之前已经面对很多内部问题。所以当SUPERMAX控制APLI之后，这些问题才一一被揭发，但其帐目的透明度也逐渐明朗化。假设APLI到现在还是由之前一任的管理层所控制而不是由SUPERMAX入主，那这帐目问题到现在还可能未被揭发出来呢，到时候问题将越滚越大而
导致另一个MEGAN事件了 ,也所幸这问题能由SUPERMAX加以阻止而未能失控。毕竟SUPERMAX才入主APLI约2年左右，可能还需要多一些时间才能扭转乾坤！

另一个我所观察到的现象是市场对这件事情的过度反应，认为大幅度加大帐目亏损就能导致APLI和SUPERMAX变成世界末日，结果大家都在歇斯底里的喊着要卖出，却不曾独立思考的想过这件事对SUPERMAX真正的影响。其实APLI在前两季已经开始转亏为盈了，而这一次的帐目调整是一次性的，我相信这对APLI的营业能力影响不大。

还有就是传媒对这帐目事件的误读，认为大幅度调整多2千万亏损会导致SUPERMAX要承担约十多巴仙的总亏损，这简直就是误导读者:@ 。根据会计制度，SUPERMAX持有APLI的约13%股权，所以APLI只能算是SUPERMAX的associate company,所以SUPERMAX是否能从APLI中赚钱，是取决与APLI的dividend payout比率来计算的。假设APLI有赚钱，它将会发出分红，那SUPERMAX就有赚了。而APLI假如没钱赚甚至亏损，所以没分红可发(因为不能发负数分红吗 )，对SUPERMAX的业绩也无甚大影响，最多只能算是无钱可收而浪费了机会成本。除非APLI是SUPERMAX的subsidiary,那其亏损才能根据SUPERMAX对APLI所持有的股权比率算入SUPERMAX的帐目里。

简单的来说，SUPERMAX对APLI投入的资金只是一次过的，之后APLI的发展，SUPERMAX都无需再投入一份钱。而且SUPERMAX也曾说过对买入APLI的股权只是一项投资，SUPERMAX将在投资之后尝试对APLI的运作，才决定是否要全面献购APLI。假设APLI的情况再恶化下去的话，大不了SUPERMAX会从APLI撤资而已。更何况站在SUPERMAX股东的角度来看，我更希望APLI能因为这一次事件被纳入PN17后除牌，届时APLI的股价将再度降低，毕竟瘦死的骆驼比马大，APLI少少也有些资产和市场占有率，因此SUPERMAX将可以以折扣的价钱全面收购APLI 。

以上是我对APLI帐目调整的看法，难免有些主观的想法(因为我已经湿了个头在里面了 )，所以希望各位能以更理性和客观来分析和看待这件事情的发展，给多一点时间来拭目以待吧。

Mr.Business

我的了解：
APLI亏损RM21.091 million, Supermax持有APLI的12.9%股份，所以承担帐目亏损RM2.071 million (呈现在Income Statement内的Share of profit of associates)。

可是这帐目亏损并不是重点，公司丑闻、做假帐的财务丑闻才是重点， 我大胆的怀疑APLI现在爆发的假帐并不全是前一任的管理层所经手的！

我们的讨论有了新的进展，所以欢迎kinwing兄来<APLI - Supermax超级豹的忧与愁。>一起讨论。

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 4-11-2007 12:20 AM 编辑 ]

publicpang

这种股...消息一出的开始....

就算是LOSS也要快快跑人...不然....

8years

“认为大幅度调整多2千万亏损会导致SUPERMAX要承担约十多巴仙的总亏损”

哈哈哈哈，恐怕问题比200多万更严重。45000000unit * 0.60=2千7百万肯定泡汤了

迟一点就变成investment write off,3千万化为乌有

kinwing

最近刚生了场大病发高烧 ，在家里躺了差不多整个星期，这场病也是我这一生中为止最辛苦的，又冷 又热 的熬过去，连上cari也少上了 。

小巴菲

那你不就错过这两个星期的刺激咯！！！！

kinwing

哈哈，股市也少上了

小巴菲

介绍你，前景无限量，PPB 4065，最适合长期投资....

kinwing

之前向老妈借了15000块要为她投资，结果被大哥知道后打了通电话训了 我一顿，要我解释对那笔钱的计划。由于电话里头不好讲，所以我写了一封email给他。由于我觉得这则email包含了我对现在股市的一些分析和看法，所以我在此向大家分享 。但这则email是以英文来写，所以请各位看官多多包涵。

"Hi bro,

Currently I am researching and analysing 5 counters that I think they could be potential to make profit.

1. ICAP
2. PADINI
3. SHELL
4. TONGHER
5. SUPERMAX

The reasons that I think the counters are potential are steated below:-

1. ICAP - It is closed-end fund which investment philosophy is value investing. I trust the fund manager Tan Teng
Boo who could really manage the fund well and increasing the net asset value of the fund.

In order to value the fund, the most appropriate way is to refer its Net Asset Value ('NAV'). Currently ICAP's NAV
is about 2.16 whereby its market value is 2.55, which is trading about 17% in premium of its NAV and thus I think
it could be over-valued at the momment. Currently I will not buy in ICAP unless its market price will be adjusting
downward or its NAV value is increasing to justify its market value.

Please refer to the latest announcement of its NAV value at the link below:-
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/listed_companies/company_announcements/announcements/index.jsp


2. PADINI - It is consumer stock of selling VINCCI shoes and PADINI clothes. It is currently trading at 2.85 per
share.

According to my reserach of its last financial year performance, its ROE is 23% (P/E = 6.46) and according to its
latest 4th financial year result, its ROE is impressive at 22% (P/E = 5.81).

In view of the above, I think the valuation of PADINI is cheap and thus it is time to buy more base on the low P/E
at around 5 to 6. Moreover, the return of its business is good due to high ROE at around 22%.

Please refer to the link of the Annual Report for PADINI as stated below:-
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/listed_companies/company_announcements/annual_reports/

Please refer to the latest quarterly announcement as stated below:-
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/listed_companies/company_announcements/announcements/historical.jsp

3. SHELL - It is manufacturing stock which business is crude oil refining. It is currently trading at 11.30 per
share.

Basicly, the higher of the crude oil price, the higher of its profit margin because SHELL could transfer the
inflating cost to the customer. Even during the bad financial performance year at 2006 because crude oil price
dropping at that year, it still profit making and achieve ROE of 13%.

As the oil price is inflating now to almost USD 100, SHELL is earning more as its 2nd quarter showing impressive
earnings and thus its annualise ROE at year 2007 could be 26% (annualise P/E = 5.85).

In view of the above, I think the valuation of SHELL is cheap and thus it is time to buy in base on the low P/E at 6. Moreover, SHELL is defensive stock because it is issuing high dividend payout.

Please refer to the link of the Annual Report for SHELL as stated below:-
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/listed_companies/company_announcements/annual_reports/

Please refer to the latest quarterly announcement as stated below:-
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/listed_companies/company_announcements/announcements/historical.jsp


4. TONHGER - It is manufacturing stock which business is involving of making stainless steel fasterners such as
nuts and bolts for construction sector. It is currently trading at 3.82 per share.

TONGHER is a growing company due to the whole world construction sector is blooming, especially China, India and
the US. TONGHER was performing well at last financial year 2006 which ROE was as high as 23%. In addition, the
growth of earning continue at this financial year 2007 as according to its latest 2nd quarter announcement, its
annualise ROE is as high as 23% (annualise P/E = 5.05).

In view of the above, I think the valuation of TONGHER is cheap and thus it is time to buy base on the low P/E at 5
times.

Please refer to the link of the Annual Report for TONGHER as stated below:-
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/listed_companies/company_announcements/annual_reports/

Please refer to the latest quarterly announcement as stated below:-
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/listed_companies/company_announcements/announcements/historical.jsp


5. SUPERMAX - It is manufacturing stock which business is making gloves. SUPERMAX is a high growth stock and is
currently trading at 2.17 per share.

SUPERMAX was performing up to my requirement and standard at last financial year 2006 as its ROE was reached at
16.5%. Its growth of revenue and earning continue rally at this financial year 2007 as according to its latest 2nd
quarter announcement, its annualise ROE will reach 21% (annualise P/E = 8.7).

In view of the above, I think the valuation of SUPERMAX is cheap and thus it is time to buy in more base on the low
P/E at 8 to 9. Moreover, SUPERMAX is high growth stock and could reward the shareholder with the high growth
capital return.

Please refer to the link of the Annual Report for SUPERMAX as stated below:-
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/listed_companies/company_announcements/annual_reports/

Please refer to the latest quarterly announcement as stated below:-
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/listed_companies/company_announcements/announcements/historical.jsp

1 more point I would like to highlight the revision and restating of the annual financial year 2006 performace is
not SUPERMAX. In fact this issue is related to its associate company APL Industries ('APLI') which is also listed
in BURSA. Basicly SUPERMAX only hold 13% of APLI's shareholding. Anyway, I dont think this accounting adjustment
will affect APLI business operation.

Please find attached herewith the announcement of APLI in relation to the audit adjustment for its year 2006
audited report:-
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/listed_companies/company_announcements/announcements/index.jsp


Last but not least, if you withdraw the money that I payback you at RM2200 for the purpose of settling my debt,
then the cash that mum provided to me will be remaining at 8000. In fact, I have used mum's money to buy 1000
SUPERMAX shares at 2.3 per share and 1000 PADINI shares at 2.9 per share. If you think the money that I put in for
these 2 counters is not appropriate, I will then put back the money by using my next 2 months paycheck.

Should you require any further information and clarification, please revert back to me or contact me.

Regards,
Kin Wing"

鬼还左反

有意思！虽然罗嗦了点 呵呵～～

请问你都有看公司的annual report吗？
我目前也在打算作中长其的股票投资计划，看可不可以在你这里偷点师

Mr.Business

个人觉得投资真是一个长期旅程，经验会随着我们的投资阅历而增加，而犯错是免不了的。不要先想赚钱，先想如果亏钱该怎么办。我认为妈妈的钱应该拿来做长期投资比较好，可我认为现在是吸取经验的时候，并不是长期投资的时候。
不要先想赚钱，先想如果亏钱该怎么办。。。

你看好的公司，老实说我感觉 (只是感觉)你对他们还了解得不够彻底，所以看你用妈妈的钱来投资他们，我为你和你妈妈担心。。。

No offend...

kinwing

嗨,鬼还左反兄你好. 是的，我在买入一间公司的股票之前都要做功课，主要就是透过年度报告来了解公司的背景，业务和赚钱能力后，再比较其市价才决定是否买入其股票。这么做至少已经减少买入正在亏钱公司的可能性。

kinwing

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 13-11-2007 09:15 AM 发表
个人觉得投资真是一个长期旅程，经验会随着我们的投资阅历而增加，而犯错是免不了的。不要先想赚钱，先想如果亏钱该怎么办。我认为妈妈的钱应该拿来做长期投资比较好，可我认为现在是吸取经验的时候，并不是长期 ...

何谓才能说是投资阅历丰厚？3年投资经历？5年？10年？这是个主观的看法，加上个人的投资策略而有所不同。基本上我采取的投资方式是长期价值投资，买入都是相对较便宜的股项(所谓便宜的股项是低P/E，不是低廉的绝对价钱），而不是去买进被投机者追捧上天价的股项,这样才能形成安全空间(margin of safety)从而提高投资的成功率。

那如何才能声称对一间公司有着充分的理解呢？那阅读年报和相关公司的宣告是第一件要做的事情，接下来就是对公司里一些抽象事物的见解，如管理层的素质等等，这就因人而异而出现不同的看法。有鉴于我的中文书写造诣不高，因此除了一些量化和具体化的事物能书写表达之外，很多其他比较深入的想法都没写出来。比如有些人说买入云顶包赚，但我却有所保留，认为云顶能成功只不过是时势造英雄罢了(靠关系？  )，再加上其董事向公司掏了一大笔的董事费实在令人不齿 。这只是其中一个显示我对大多数人持有相反看法的例子，因此我也能理解Mr.Business兄认为我对某些公司的了解不够彻底的看法。

但何谓才能说对某间公司能彻底了解呢？50%的了解程度？60%？80%？其实我以为投资是一项艺术，有时侯本能的反应和察觉都能影响我对某项投资的看法，而不只是单单看表面的数据和单一突发事情而下判断,这里引用凯恩斯(John M.Keynes)的一句话:"宁要模糊的正确，不要精确的错误 (It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong)".

至于我老妈交给我那15000块的起因是因为之前她投资了一项外国基金已有5到6年了，却还在亏钱，所以我认为既然交给那些所谓专业的投资者，不如交给我帮她处理。也想借此机会来考验我的投资策略是否正确，因为这毕竟是家人的钱那就要更加小心了 。

至于现在牛市不适合长期投资的想法，我却有另一想法那就是牛市里也有被低估的股项，相对的说不准在熊市也可能买进个别相对高估的股项呢。因此投资股票并不需要硬性的规定在某个时候才能买进，而是视特定公司的表现而作出判断。

kinwing

以下的文章是我转帖于我在＂ topglove傷透了我的心。。。。。＂帖子里所写一个的回帖。
http://chinese4.cari.com.my/myforum/viewthread.php?tid=1035939&extra=page%3D1&page=3

"其实股价下跌后就是好时机买入，我认为TOGLOVE越跌得多越好！！！现在的6块定价还显得高估,最好跌到3.5以下甚至到0，那才好呢 .

还有就是你当初买入TOPGLOVE的目的是什么？是投资的话那就需得忍一忍，因为股市始终有一天将会反映其内在价值。假设要知道股价下跌的原因，那就自己去找答案，是不是公司的基本面改变了或是某个大股东在抛售,或TOPGLOVE买进自己本身的股份意味着什么暗示？自己去找答案和思考总好过在这里大嚷大叫的，要别人为你找答案。

如果你是投机的话，你就应该有这样的心理准备来应付股价的下跌,当初9块买入的确有点高估了.这是不是在比傻投机呢，总希望在高价买入会有更傻的凯子以更高价向你买入?赠你一句：＂要知道你投机时，总有一个人会是倒霉的凯子，如果你看看四周看不出谁要倒霉了，那么那个凯子就是你自己 。＂

kinwing

下的文章是我转帖于我在＂【Topglove 交流專區】Topglove顶级手套－是时候趁低买入？＂帖子里所写一个的回帖。
http://chinese4.cari.com.my/myforum/viewthread.php?tid=987140&extra=page%3D1&page=15

"股价跌至0只不过是一个极端的情况，但却是买入的极好时机 。

为什么在股价跌至0时还需要以100万买入？这我可不明白了，因为股价跌至0时意味着这公司的股份是免费的，我可不必花1分1毫的钱而能拥有整间公司的股权。

这时候可能一些市场有效论的拥护者就会质疑说股价跌得这样贱就意味着公司有问题，股价永远都是对的因为其总是反映公司的价值。这也就好比有人在路边看到了有人遗失了一叠100万钞票在路旁，那人却认为这叠钞票是假的，如果是真的话早就已经被他人捡了，所以又何必浪费气力去捡那笔假钞。假设人人都这么想，那叠钞票的确就会永远的留在那里 。

但自我开始接触金融学时就从来都不认同市场有效论，因为市场有效论有一个假设那就是所有投资者都是理性的。投资者是不是理性的，大家都有历史可参考，如荷兰郁金香事件，英国南海事件，以及最近的美国网络股泡沫，都反映着投资者从来都不是理智的。我永远都紧记这么一句话：＂股市仅仅是作一个参考值而存在，方便我们发现是否有人干了蠢事" 。"

xzm

何谓理性？何谓不理性？

就拿荷兰郁金香事件来说，投资者/投机者认为他以这个价钱买入，然后能以更高价卖给另一个人的几率非常高，那么他买入，不就成了一个理性的决定了吗？

kinwing

原帖由 小巴菲 于 12-11-2007 11:23 PM 发表
介绍你，前景无限量，PPB 4065，最适合长期投资....

PPB前景是好，但以现在10.1股价来看，其PE(本益比）大概是20倍，那其ROI（初次投资回酬）为5%，只不过是比银行定存的4%好了那么一点。再加上其ROE（股东基金回酬）并没有达到我的标准为15%，所以我对现今阶段买入PPB有所保留。

[ 本帖最后由 kinwing 于 18-11-2007 04:07 PM 编辑 ]

kinwing

我所谓理性的想法是经过独立思考和观察有关事物的发展过程，并采取适当的决策。历史已经证明荷兰郁金香事件是非理性的，因为郁金香在当时并不值得以高价卖出。如果投机者认为他以高价买入，然后能以更高价卖给另一个人的几率非常高，其实他已经受到市场的影响而作出非理性的决策。是否能以高价卖出的机率高，其实这是很主观的看法，很多人其实也没有个底，难保今天买入就明天暴跌了。

很多投机者就是有这样的心理，只不过是是心理主观的揣测却没有去作更多的研究来支持其看法，结果冒然买进而蒙受亏损。

[ 本帖最后由 kinwing 于 18-11-2007 03:22 PM 编辑 ]

keatsmon

投资，要多预测未来 - 生意人要眼光准，才能赚大钱。

历史性Financial Data重要，可以告诉你公司的许多事情，但不要执著于历史性P/E，多预测未来性P/E - EG，多注意市场对该公司未来的评价。