十年一度的经济下滑。。。

dinomutt

十年一度的经济下滑。。。

The market crash in 2007

The recent heavy sell-down on the bond and stock markets caught a lot of retail and institutional investors by surprise. What appeared to be a haven in investment like the bond market was still subject to panic selling from institutional investors.

We believe the crash in the bond market was mainly due to the withdrawal of some foreign funds. As a result of tight liquidity, unwinding of yen carry trade and potential high losses in some hedge funds, some foreign funds might have been forced to withdraw their investments from the Asia-Pacific market.

The plummet in our stock market was mainly due to the fear of sharp drops in the US, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Japan markets.  

Even though our banking institutions were not really affected by the US subprime issues, the international contagion and fear of more crashes, margin calls and panic selling from retailers caused heavy losses on Bursa Malaysia.  

Nevertheless, the magnitude of our losses was far less than those in the regional markets.



The market crash in 1987/8

The market crash in October 1987 was partly attributed to strong market performance of most markets during the first nine months of the year. For example, the US market experienced more than 30% increase during the nine-month period.  

However, from Oct 12 to 16, the Dow Index tumbled by 9.5%. On Black Monday of Oct 19, it plunged 22.6%, or 508 points, within a day. It was the largest single fall since 1929, in both absolute and percentage terms.  

In Malaysia, the KL Composite Index (KLCI) tumbled by 12.4% on Black Monday. As a result of the overnight crash in US, the KLCI plunged another 15.7% the next trading day.



The market crash in 1997/8

The Asian stock market crash of 1997/98 began with a currency crisis in July in Thailand and quickly spread to neighbouring nations. One by one, overheated markets crashed in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea. This was mostly due to the rapid industrialisation in these countries.  

The US market was affected by the turmoil in Asia. Its share prices began to collapse at the beginning of October 1997. On Oct 27, the Dow Index tumbled by 554 points, or 7.2%, within a day. However, it recovered by recording a rise of 337 points the next day.  

In Malaysia, the KLCI tumbled from 1,231 points in the beginning of 1997 to the low of 262 on Sept 1, 1998, representing a total percentage drop of 78.7%.

Comparing the three market crashes, the KLCI suffered its biggest daily drop of 21.5% on Sept 8, 1998. The crashes in 1997/8 and 1987/8 were also far more severe than our recent market crash.  

We are not too sure whether we have seen the worst of the crash in 2007. However, the sell-down has caused a big disruption in our uptrend momentum. It appears to be quite difficult for the KLCI to touch the recent peak of 1,392 again.  

Any market rebounds may prompt fund managers to continue offloading their equity exposure. Most of big losses in 1997/8 and 1987/8 happened in October.

As we can only know the actual exposure of the subprime issues for most of the US financial institutions when they report their third quarter results in early October, we are expecting some market volatility in that month.


各位前辈对这个economy cycle有什么看法？

今年也会发生同样的事情吗？

基金小子

原帖由 dinomutt 于 29-8-2007 10:02 AM 发表
十年一度的经济下滑。。。

The market crash in 2007

The recent heavy sell-down on the bond and stock markets caught a lot of retail and institutional investors by surprise. What appeared to  ...

2007经济会不会10年一度的大调整??
我不知道。。

我的family从1981年开始投资大众基金到2007年了。。
我的基金中过一次的大调整，就是1997年的大股灾。。
我父亲的基金也中过两次的大调整，1987年&1997年的股灾。。
我们的基金现在都有赚到钱的。。
只要在大股灾时不要卖掉基金，因为只是暂时的纸上亏损，
只要耐心等待基金是可以赚到钱的。。

对我来说，股市大调整不用太害怕的，反而是我大加码的最佳良机。。

leekk8

只要投资在一些稳定的信托公司，即使是股市调整也不必害怕。。。投资基金是长期的，股市不会永远在熊市。。。

只怕投资在一些不稳定的信托公司，信托公司本身不能在股灾时期生存下来。。。

基金小子

原帖由 leekk8 于 29-8-2007 11:57 AM 发表
只要投资在一些稳定的信托公司，即使是股市调整也不必害怕。。。投资基金是长期的，股市不会永远在熊市。。。

只怕投资在一些不稳定的信托公司，信托公司本身不能在股灾时期生存下来。。。

同意你的说法。。。

cheong1984

我个人认为经济泡沫还没有到来，我觉得可能是美国在试亚洲的国家罢了。

mapolang1981

原帖由 cheong1984 于 29-8-2007 03:41 PM 发表
我个人认为经济泡沫还没有到来，我觉得可能是美国在试亚洲的国家罢了。

我倒是觉得亚洲市场随着中国与印度的崛起，而削弱了美国的影响力，这种现象会越来越明显。

潇遥仙

打个比喻，上个月的苹果卖RM1.00一粒，你买了些。。。
这个月苹果卖RM0.70一粒。我想问大家会买吗？

苹果=基金。

Public Itikal Fund也是在1997年股灾期间推出的，大家知道它现在的表现吗？

dinomutt

那就是说，股市大调整其实就是更好？？

基金小子

原帖由 dinomutt 于 3-9-2007 04:58 PM 发表
那就是说，股市大调整其实就是更好？？

优质股都会跟着下跌的，基金经理会趁机扫这些优质股，股市一反弹，基金又可以赚钱了。。。

雁风

其实我还蛮期待一下调整，这样就可以扫便宜货，尤其是蓝筹股。
反正只要是走长期的话，上涨的机会很高。

cyberct

我也期待调整，可以扫便宜货。

dinomutt

那如果买基金需不需要等到调整再买？

基金小子

原帖由 dinomutt 于 4-9-2007 10:54 AM 发表
那如果买基金需不需要等到调整再买？

有耐心的话，可以等啦。。不过不知道要等很久。。

最好的就是现在投资一些，迟点再加码。。。

yyhhcc

leekk8 , 基金小子 ,
你们有发觉到最近PBmutual 的动向吗？对这‘十年一度的经济下滑’的预言，我想PBMutual也开始‘做东西了’。。  （我是查看PB的weekly highlights）

基金小子

原帖由 yyhhcc 于 4-9-2007 12:12 PM 发表
leekk8 , 基金小子 ,
你们有发觉到最近PBmutual 的动向吗？对这‘十年一度的经济下滑’的预言，我想PBMutual也开始‘做东西了’。。  （我是查看PB的weekly highlights）

不管未来发生什么事情。。
如果股市大起的话，等赚够了，我的一些基金会SWITCHING部分去债券。。
如果股市大落的话，我累积的一些子弹，会尽量加码在我的基金里。。