马来西亚 房地产泡沫（有效至12月31日）

异端者

tongbaoatHmail 发表于 5-11-2012 06:11 PM
事情都要看两面。帮你filter稍微能力负担较低的租客。
相对的，提高你收取更高租金的机会。

哇，这个回答我喜欢！你是做sales的吗？转数好快！给个like你~

tongbaoatHmail

异端者 发表于 5-11-2012 08:26 PM
哇，这个回答我喜欢！你是做sales的吗？转数好快！给个like你~

不是。事情没有绝对的，不同的位置有不同想法吧了。

win1888

Lz 记得这句话，

人类不停增加
土地不会增加

Dragon-I

win1888 发表于 9-11-2012 09:52 PM
Lz 记得这句话，

人类不停增加

所以屋价越来越贵

stone-creation

aidj 发表于 1-10-2012 03:46 PM
看谁最后没抢到椅子坐

没有椅子坐的人可以坐沙发，
抢到椅子抢不到屋子的人，可以去公园睡椅子。
很快，十一月了。。。

夜铃

有些事情会发生在不同人的身上。如果是经济好时但是运气不好，也会被逼得走投无路。

这就发生在我旧同事身上，他也是一个不认为会泡沫的。今年头也置屋业了，还一直游说我们，买得多好的房产，才几个月就赚了，等起好，就翻倍了。。。就好像自己就要变百万富豪了。带家人去旅行，旧车也换新车。

怎知，前几个月，被公司栽了，几个月的人工，也不够给几个月房贷和开销。。。他急了，到处问谁要买他的房子，价钱还比买的时候越压低。

97/98年风暴，我也有亲戚因为房产破产的。。。

所以，不管别人怎么说，自己能力有限的话，那管他人说没有本事买屋子，租房子的可能更富贵。

共勉之。

春秋

夜铃 发表于 12-11-2012 02:22 PM
有些事情会发生在不同人的身上。如果是经济好时但是运气不好，也会被逼得走投无路。

这就发生在我旧同事 ...

是我就趁这个机会再压他价，然后告诉他好好赚哦

stone-creation

夜铃 发表于 12-11-2012 02:22 PM
有些事情会发生在不同人的身上。如果是经济好时但是运气不好，也会被逼得走投无路。

这就发生在我旧同事 ...

请问你朋友的单位在哪里？要卖甚么价？

tongbaoatHmail

Source: http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/ ... 012:&Itemid=202

大马的经济趋势

龙门阵 2012年11月12日
作者: 孙和声 ， 栏名: 狂声噪语
   


隨著几个主要经济体，如美国欧盟经济欲振乏力，外加上最大的新兴经济体──中国也有放缓的趋势，大马的经济前景，也格外令人注目。

实事求是地说，自1997-98金融货幣危机以来，大马经济便已大幅度减速，1990年代初期那种约10%的年均增长率，已不復重现。 若以10年为单位，2001年至2010年只得4.5%，是1961-1970（5.2%）、1971-1980（8.3%）、1981-1990（6%）与1991-2000（7.2%）以来，最低的年均增长率。

之所以如此，成因固然是多重的，如区域化与全球化的作用。更根本的原因是，產业升级失败。与1990年代相比，进入21世纪的大马经济有以下的基本趋势：出口增长大幅放缓，90年代初期那种两位数的出口增长率已隨风而逝；反映在投资上的是，投资占国內生產总值（GDP）的百分比，也长期徘徊在20%上下，比1990年代初期的约40%，锐减约100%！即使出台了经济转型计划与各类入口点计划，2010年、2011年的投资率，也仅得约22%，没有显著改善。此外，自2005以来，对外直接投资也节节上升，反映出国內投资经营环境欠佳。

投资不足的后果之一是，国民总储蓄长期佔GDP约35%，外匯存底也日增，直接或间接地，加剧了炒股、炒房地產之风。对外匯存底，也应认识到，这並非国家的钱，而是国內外投资或投机者的钱（包括旨在炒作的热钱hot money），当他们一齐大量撒资时，就会造成很大的破坏，如1997-1998的金融货幣危机，外匯存底也会快速剧减。

眾皆知，推动一国经济增长的主动力有三，（也有人称之为三匹马车），即投资、净出口与消费。当投资与净出口减速时，便只有4%靠消费，而自1997-1998以来，大马便主要靠消费或內需来刺激经济增长，进而使国债与家户债务节节上升。消费若是生產性的，也有助于提升大马的產业层次的话，本也不是问题。问题在于，大马的消费主要是消耗性而非生產性的，也无助于推动大马產品与服务的改朝换代或升级，其结果，就为日后埋下危机，也因还本付息，而削弱了进一步搞生產性投资的潜能，这才是真正的远忧近虑。

近几年来，消费占我国GDP的百分比，均在60%以上，其中，居民消费多占约48%。这些居民消费又以房贷与车贷占最大宗。后果之一便是，家户债务占GDP的百分比，从1990年代的约40多%，剧升到2011的约77%！在亚洲仅次于日本！继续放宽房贷、车贷，以刺激经济，只能是饮鳩止渴，把问题延后，而非加以解决。

在大马的消费群中，小园主是个重要的组成部份，当原產品价格高涨时，如2007年以来的价格水平，他们自也为消费性增长出一份力，可近几个月来，原棕油与胶汁价格大幅下降了40多%，其收入与消费也大受影响（如原棕油从一公吨近4000令吉跌到2300左右，或胶汁从一公斤近10令吉掉到约6令吉），进而也会抑制大马的消费驱动型增长，甚而冲击到选票的流向。

结而言之，长远来看，大马的出路在于生產性投资及有助于提升產业层次的消费，其中，人力资本投资又是重中之重。若再一味搞什么大型基建，只会製造虚幻的繁荣景观，虽利了朋党，可后果则得由全民来承担。此外，从政策上言，政策目標也应从单纯的族际间財富重分配（多为股权），转向提升全民技能、就业与收入，这才是长治久安之策。终极而言，这是个政治而非经济课题。

vincentsieng

有人生就有人死，看自己的眼光和守门能力吧！

就像我刚买的新店，因为GM speed关门大吉，屋主丢空几个月没租金收，结果屋主快快的卖给我，下个月就要交key了。
可是上个星期我就已经和租户签了临时租约，决定租给他们15年，至于租金比之前的还高很多。

koolll

朱冠華_馬來西亞房地產泡沫
http://soundcloud.com/mwp880830/dfmgorsqn0aj

SilverStarrr

newproperty123 发表于 1-10-2012 09:28 PM
到时候市场上会有很多新房产，所以2016年滥价比较可能。

个人是觉得几率不高，要知道人口在增加，每年有能力购买屋子的人也在增加。到时房产的数量就算超出，也不足以造成滥价吧。。

SilverStarrr

vincentsieng 发表于 2-10-2012 11:19 AM
新房产多,也不会比生孩子的产量多.尤其是今年更高咯.

人最终也是要找间家的,不理它是大的,小的,贵的还 ...

很同意。。有些人只是考量到房产的增加，却没注意到人口增加带来的生活所需。

SilverStarrr

vincentsieng 发表于 5-10-2012 01:05 PM
这个我敢肯定他们不敢，因为他们都是超悲观一族。等泡沫出现时，他们一定还会认为泡沫中里面还有泡沫的。

这个我敢肯定他们不敢，因为他们都是超悲观一族。等泡沫出现时，他们一定还会认为泡沫中里面还有泡沫的+1

这个有意思。。真的不排除有人这样想

q(^_^)p

香港够拥挤吧？还不是曾经发生过几次房产泡沫？

现在很多房屋project一推出，号码就被人拿完了。到底是谁购买力那么强？还是有什么猫腻？

我也同意，雪隆一带的房子就算泡沫，也不会大跌。

highlander1979

我也不觉得会泡沫，最多是放缓或着跌个 5% 而已。。。

willchh

總而言之，還沒有房屋的人，就買第一間為自己的住所吧，管它未來幾年是漲是跌？過十年就比現在高價了，二、三十年供完後價值倍增了。

那些已經有了一間甚至多過一間的，敢搏就搏，不敢搏就不要再買。

vincentsieng

q(^_^)p 发表于 13-11-2012 12:48 PM
香港够拥挤吧？还不是曾经发生过几次房产泡沫？

现在很多房屋project一推出，号码就被人拿完了。到底是谁 ...

对，香港的确经历几次暴跌，可是现在的价钱又起到如何呢？

有许多香港人在泡沫发生时，将房产放手了。可是不用1年里，这些人就在那儿槌心口的怨价钱升值到比之前更高了。如果你有看3哥的一出戏（缺宅男女），那么你就大概可以明白当年泡沫发生时，香港人被那些人（讲泡沫)害的多惨。

说回马来西亚主要的城市的产业，个人并不否认没有泡沫。但是这个泡沫到几时才破呢？产业价值会跌多少呢？几时会止跌回升呢？当深跌后反弹回升时又会升多少呢？那么多的问题，谁敢肯定的回答。这些人又可以拿什么东西来保证呢？一班人的在说明年房产会下跌的，但是也有一班人说明年房产会继续上升，你要信那边呢？

很奇怪的，为什么人就不要信自己呢？只要你相信自己在未来5年内，绝对不会破产的，那么何乐而不为的敢敢去买呢？

JordanGoh

各有各道理～

夜铃

各位，感觉都hit了吗？

By Opalyn Mok
November 13, 2012

GEORGE TOWN, Nov 13 ―  Falling global demand has forced Penang factories to freeze hiring, cut production and implement four-day weeks, even as analysts predicted Malaysia’s economy grew slower in the third quarter.
The Malaysian Insider understands that factories in Penang, the country’s main electronics manufacturing hub, have stopped hiring, and are not even replacing those who have retired or resigned.
Many plants have also reduced output to cut costs.
Malaysia’s economy probably grew at its slowest pace in the third quarter as exports fell, but resilient domestic demand, partly fuelled by government spending ahead of an election next year, helped shore up expansion, according to a Reuters poll.
Exports account for roughly 60 per cent of Malaysia’s gross domestic product, and these have been hurt by weaker demand for commodities and electronic components in China as well as the European Union.

The hardest hit would be the electronics sector due to the drop in global demand.
“For the time being, many of these companies are still able to sustain their business until the end of this year,” said Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers’ Datuk O.K. Lee.

The hardest hit would be the electronics sector due to the drop in global demand but Lee said other industries are also similarly affected as the manufacturing sector relies heavily on exports.
“Some of the factories are not working at full capacity now and due to the gloomy global economic outlook, many are also holding back on investments and adopting the wait and see method,” he said.
Some industry insiders noted that several multinationals are offering voluntary separation schemes to its employees but are careful to keep this hushed up.
”These are big MNCs so they have to be careful to protect their reputation but these are not huge numbers of VSS in any one company but small numbers spread out over the months so as not to raise any alarm ,” one industry official said.
Even as factories cut down production and output, working hours were also reduced and overtime slashed.

A factory manager said it has been several months since the factory workers were told to work four-day weeks.
This is also the time for some of us to clear our leave too as production has decreased. We are just glad that there were no retrenchment exercises.
While there were no signs of retrenchments, plants have had to adjust capacities in order to remain viable in these uncertain times, said InvestPenang executive chairman Datuk Simon Wong.

He said Penang was fortunate that it had recorded exceptionally great months last year and this helps to ease the slowdown this year due to the whiplash from the global economic downturn.
Penang had recorded RM12.2 billion in manufacturing investments in 2010 and RM9.1 billion last year.

Wong said the previous years’ exceptional performance in investments will help to tide the sector over for this year and possibly next year.
This year, between January to July, Penang only recorded investments of not more than RM1.7 billion.
“Instead of comparing the investment amount on an annual basis, we should be looking at the investments on a three-year basis as we are talking about long-term investments,” said Wong.
He said what looks like a “flat” year in terms of investments in Penang this year may not be a bad thing at all as it allows the industrial sector to move up higher the value-chain instead of continuing with the traditional operator-based services.
“We don’t want to have too many of these kinds of investments as it will choke up the industry and create a bottleneck.”
He said the amount of investments will also need to grow in tandem with the available infrastructure in order to sustain the industry in the years to come.
Wong said the state government is now spending more time to develop the local small medium enterprises (SME) to get these smaller entities to compete at the global and regional level.
The state is also concentrating on attracting investments in other sectors such as in medical devices, LED, renewable energy, medical tourism and most recently, the halal industry.
There is a global market trend of increasing demand in the LED industry as the industry is forecasted to grow by six per cent by the end of this year.

The next big thing that is seeing growth in Penang is the medical tourism industry.

According to the Malaysia Healthcare Travel Council, Penang accounts for 50 per cent of the medical tourism industry in Malaysia.
This industry saw a 26 per cent growth last year as compared to 2010.

The manufacturing sector may be expecting a gloomy outlook in the months to come due to the uncertain global economic outlook which could also cause investors to be more cautious, Wong said this will not greatly affect the overall performance of the sector in the state.
“Everyone will be more cautious next year due to the global outlook, but that doesn’t necessarily spell gloom for Penang as we have other industries to focus on,” Wong said.