【欧贝亚个人专区】高成长公司投资策略

欧贝亚

最新的汽车销量报告出了。暂时还找不到中文的版本，所以只贴上英语的：

October 20, 2008 17:29 PM           

Vehicle Sales Up 7.4 Pct In September

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 20 (BERNAMA) -- Motor vehicle sales in Malaysia was higher in September this year, recording a 7.4 percent increase or by 3,502 units to 50,729 units compared with August this year.

This was backed by good sales mainly from Perodua and Proton, the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) said.

The better sales was also due to the festive Hari Raya season, MAA said in a statement here Monday.

The sales was also better by 12.8 percent or 5,745 units when compared with September last year.

Year-to-date, sales rose to 429,913 units from 358,234 units in the previous corresponding period.

The association said that the automotive industry would continue to see a favourable growth for this month, supported by sales of the two national car manufacturers.

In September this year, total industry production increased to 42,638 units from 40,660 units in the same month last year.

Of these, passenger cars accounted for 39,037 units while 3,601 units were commercial vehicles.

Total production in the first nine months of this year went up to 403,707 units as against 327,340 units during the same period last year.

Of the number, passenger cars comprised 366,594 units and the remaining 35,113 units were commercial vehicles.

-- BERNAMA

欧贝亚

九月份的汽车销量比预期好，可是汽车行业业者对于2008年第四季的销量不看好，订单减少了，新的投资也减少了：

October 16, 2008 18:18 PM

MIER's Auto Index Slides Below 100 In Q3

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 16 (Bernama) - The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research's Auto Industry Index fell by 31.9 points to 96.8 in the third quarter of this year from 128.7 in the second quarter as households struggled with soaring inflation and tighter credit.

It slided below the 100-point benchmark after four quarters of upbeat sentiments.

The index, which is designed to be a leading indicator of economic activity in the automotive sector, was also down 12.9 points compared with 109.7 points in the previous corresponding quarter.

"The quarter survey finds that the industry has been slapped by rising inflation, higher hire purchase rates and dismal economic outlook," said the private think tank in its Automotive Industry Survey Report released here today.

The decrease in the overall auto index has been due to lower reading in both the current and the expectations indices whereby under the current index, two components, production and orders sub-indices, have come down.

Surprisingly, the sales sub-index was still holding up in the quarter but this may not last long as orders are slipping fast, said MIER.

According to actual car sales figures, sales were still cheerful in July 2008 but started slipping in August.

MIER said the expectations index for the coming quarter was not favourable with all components reporting declines.

But despite the bad news, sales have been resilient, MIER said. Respondents reporting sales to be "good" and "satisfactory" in the quarter actually increased to 90 percent from 78 percent in the second quarter. A total of 39 companies had participated in the survey.

On the flip side, those who replied that sales have been "poor" dropped to 10 percent in the third quarter from 22 percent in the previous quarter.

In line with the resilient sales, the percentage of respondents who increased production has stayed steady at 50 percent in the quarter from 67 percent in the quarter before.

The greater fear is that orders and bookings have retreated markedly with fewer respondents or 44 percent reporting higher orders compared to 78 percent in the previous quarter.

Furthermore, the percentage of those revealing declining orders has doubled to 44 percent in the quarter from 22 percent previously.

With production volume still holding up in the third quarter, capacity utilisation has remained at satisfactory levels.

The percentage of firms operating in the 61-100 percent range has been sustained at 90 percent compared to 88 percent in the second quarter.

In view of the gloomier economic outlook, MIER said its survey found that the percentage of the respondents who had increased investment dropped significantly to a low of 10 percent from 56 percent in the second quarter.

Reflecting the highly uncertain times and taking a more cautious stance, all respondents were also keeping their head count unchanged in the third quarter.

In terms of production costs, most respondents or 60 percent said their costs have increased, almost similar to the previous quarter or 56 percent.

Pressured by rising costs a large majority or 60 percent have raised prices in the quarter from 58 percent previously.

As producers and assemblers can no longer absorb the higher costs, they have been forced to pass them to consumers despite fierce competition in the industry.

With the rise in rates for hire purchase, a larger number of respondents or 56 percent felt that credit conditions have tightened, compared to only 22 percent previously.

According to MIER, on the whole, the prospects for the next quarter appear worryingly dismal.

The percentage of respondent expecting their sales to increase in the fourth quarter has fallen to 10 percent from a larger 38 percent in the preceding quarter.

In addition, 30 percent of the respondents are expecting sales to actually decline in the next quarter, up from 25 percent previously.

More strikingly, MIER said, only 10 percent of respondents anticipate an increase in production volume in the coming quarter, down sharply from 56 percent previously.

With the lingering inflation, a large percentage or 50 percent of them expect production costs to increase in the coming quarter.

The number of respondents anticipating tighter financing in the fourth quarter increased sharply to 78 percent from 44 percent previously, as hire purchase rates are already creeping upwards.

-- BERNAMA

欧贝亚

1）过去一年维他命Ｅ的销量大概只是产量（32000～40000tonnes CPO)的80％。
2）现在的产量提高到90000tonnes CPO了（2008年7月），可以卖出去吗？
3）明年年初的产量会提高到120000tonnes CPO。
4）去年的收账很顺利，今年却增加了很多未收账。
5）和澳洲上市的Mission Biofuel作了比较，觉得是因为BioDiesel的账都收得很慢。Mission Biofuel大概只能收回3成销售额，其他都是欠账。Carotec在2008财政年第四季的AR增加了大概27Million，觉得是因为BioDiesel的账都收不回来。
6）BioDiesel的销售量大概只是产量的六成，所以当产量提高了，会担心卖不出去。卖出去了过后，又担心收不回钱。
7） 现在的国际油价是大概ＵＳＤ70／Barrel，大概是ＭＹＲ1800 per tonne。David Ho说过当油价是ＵＳＤ126（大概ＭＹＲ3000per tonne）的时候，ＣＰＯ必须是ＭＹＲ2800，BioDiesel才有盈利空间。假设ＭＹＲ200是每公吨BioDiesel的盈利，那120000公吨的每年盈利可以达到MYR24Million
8）维他命Ｅ的产量提高了3倍，2009年ＣＰＯ的成本价和2008年比较可能降低了4成，如果利润空间上升了一倍，然后销售量提高3倍，全年盈利可以达到MYR32Million。
9）如果Carotec的生意模式能成功（ＣＰＯ价格必须维持在ＭＹＲ1800以下），FY2009的纯盈利应该可以达到MYR30Million，FY2010的纯盈利就应该达到MYR50Million。
10）Carotec的问题是债务太高了。虽然很幸运地在扩充产量的时候Biofuel市场又有利可图了，但如果要ＤＥ回到比较安全的水平，也需要至少一年的时间；除非ＨＯＶＩＤ会找一个策略伙伴注资ＣＡＲＯＴＥＣ。其实找一个有现金的油棕园（比如ＩＯＩ）来当策略伙伴，对ＣＡＲＯＴＥＣ利多于弊。ＨＯＶＩＤ自己有债务问题要解决，也可以乘机卖一部分的ＣＡＲＯＴＥＣ股份来融资。而David Ho本身也可以避免ＨＯＶＩＤ股价创新底而被银行追钱（David现在有差不多36％的ＨＯＶＩＤ股份被银行抵押着。）
11）让策略伙伴有信心的唯一方法，就是看ＦＹ2009年第一季和第二季的财政情况如何了。
12）下一个季度报告应该是这个月底公布，到时候可以看看到底值不值得投资。

Mr.Business

原帖由 欧贝亚 于 2-11-2008 06:22 PM 发表
8）维他命Ｅ的产量提高了3倍，2009年ＣＰＯ的成本价和2008年比较可能降低了4成，如果利润空间上升了一倍，然后销售量提高3倍，全年盈利可以达到MYR32Million。

ＣＡＲＯＴＥＣ的维他命Ｅ昂贵而且很不普遍，请不要对维他命Ｅ的销售量太乐观。

stereo

森那美也有生产这类的产品。

欧贝亚

http://www.gold-trie.com/

这里说的是ＳＩＭＥ拿来自ＭＰＯＢ的ＰＡＴＥＮＴ来制造ＶＩＴＡＭＩＮ Ｅ。海鸥也拿了这个产品去中国销售。不过没看到ＳＩＭＥ生产ＶＩＴＡＭＩＮ Ｅ的时候也生产ＢＩＯ ＦＵＥＬ。

看不到最近的财政情况。

Mr.Business

原帖由 欧贝亚 于 3-11-2008 11:10 AM 发表
不过没看到ＳＩＭＥ生产ＶＩＴＡＭＩＮ Ｅ的时候也生产ＢＩＯ ＦＵＥＬ。

你这句话想表达什么？


从棕油CPO可以提炼出ＶＩＴＡＭＩＮ Ｅ，BＩＯ ＦＵＥＬ和Glycerine。之前看过新闻，因为用CPO提炼出BＩＯ ＦＵＥＬ和Glycerine的关系，Glycerine的供应大增，价钱跌得很烂。

欧贝亚

从历史来看，ＣＡＲＯＴＥＣ销售ＶＩＴＡＭＩＮ Ｅ的纪录还可以。

以后能不能卖出去增加了这么多的产量，相信连ＤＡＶＩＤ ＨＯ自己现在也不能肯定。只能说一个成功的企业家肯定会有一个他认为可行的策略和计划。我在等待看他的策略和计划能不能行得通。

欧贝亚

http://www.missionbiofuels.com/

我还没看到和ＣＡＲＯＴＥＣ一样，在生产ＶＩＴＡＭＩＮ Ｅ的同时又能生产ＢＩＯ ＦＵＥＬ。生产ＢＩＯＦＵＥＬ的一定能生产ＧＬＹＣＥＲＩＮＥ。

Mr.Business

你去Penang的Queensbay，看看Hovid的店的生意是多么的惨淡，你就可以知道他的策略和计划能不能行得通。

Mr.Business

ＣＡＲＯＴＥＣ一直自豪说只有她可以从CPO提炼出Super Vitamin E，别个生物柴油厂只能生产出生物柴油和Glycerine，而ＣＡＲＯＴＥＣ能生产出Super Vitamin E，生物柴油和Glycerine。。。现在ＳＩＭＥ也可以。。。

goodluck88

HAIO的店也是满冷淡的。。。

欧贝亚

看来你对ＤＡＶＩＤ ＨＯ的执行力不太看好。我不认识他，不过觉得能够努力创新，而且也敢冒险去从事一个他自己有优势的生意，就可以加入观察名单了。而且这样可以学习到他们创业和经营的理念和经验。

欧贝亚

ＳＩＭＥ也可以吗？可以分享资料？

www.iisd.org/pdf/2008/biofuels_subsidies_malaysia.pdf

这份文件有提供如何计算ＢＩＯＦＵＥＬ的成本价。大致上和ＤＡＶＩＤ ＨＯ说的一样：ＭＹＲ650至720。

[ 本帖最后由 欧贝亚 于 3-11-2008 11:50 AM 编辑 ]

Mr.Business

普通生物柴油厂：
将CPO里面的Glycerine提炼出来，剩下的就是生物柴油。

ＣＡＲＯＴＥＣ：
将CPO里面的Glycerine和Super Vitamin E提炼出来，剩下的就是生物柴油。

SIME一样有从CPO提炼出Super Vitamin E的技术。
(你可以将生物柴油了解为没有Glycerine和Super Vitamin E的CPO。)

原帖由 欧贝亚 于 3-11-2008 11:10 AM 发表
http://www.gold-trie.com/

这里说的是ＳＩＭＥ拿来自ＭＰＯＢ的ＰＡＴＥＮＴ来制造ＶＩＴＡＭＩＮ Ｅ。海鸥也拿了这个产品去中国销售。不过没看到ＳＩＭＥ生产ＶＩＴＡＭＩＮ Ｅ的时候也生产ＢＩＯ ＦＵＥＬ。
...

欧贝亚

ＳＩＭＥ的ＶＩＴＡＭＩＮ Ｅ业务以前就有了（以前是ＧＯＬＤＥＮ ＨＯＰＥ），可是就没听过他们能够“同时“生产ＶＩＴＡＭＩＮ Ｅ和ＢＩＯＦＵＥＬ。ＣＡＲＯＴＥＣ的生产过程是有版权的，如果ＳＩＭＥ有另一种方法能够同时生产ＶＩＴＡＭＩＮ Ｅ和ＢＩＯＦＵＥＬ，那ＣＡＲＯＴＥＣ就没有竞争优势了。我觉得ＳＩＭＥ还没有掌握到这种科技。

Mr.Business

哎，
你可以将生物柴油了解为没有Glycerine和Super Vitamin E的CPO。
SIME可以从CPO提炼出Super Vitamin E，也可以从CPO提炼出生物柴油。。。

欧贝亚

我姑且把你的看法是：

ＣＰＯ提炼出ＶＩＴＡＭＩＮ Ｅ后，其余的ＣＰＯ可以利用Transesterification提炼出ＢＩＯＦＵＥＬ。

这我倒要挖出ＣＡＲＯＴＥＣ的ＰＡＴＥＮＴ来读读看了。ＭＰＯＢ也有提炼ＶＩＴＡＭＩＮ Ｅ的ＰＡＴＥＮＴ，ＣＡＲＯＴＥＣ提炼ＶＩＴＡＭＩＮ Ｅ的科技是自己的吧？

欧贝亚

建议所有对棕油相关行业有兴趣的投资者看上面发的资料，里头有很多很有用的资料。

ＣＡＲＯＴＥＣ现在是马来西亚最大的ＢＩＯＦＵＥＬ生产商，其他比如ＳＩＭＥ的工厂都因为生产成本太高而关闭或停止生产。不过ＣＡＲＯＴＥＣ的产量只是总产量的10％（2008）或5％（2009），却占了全马总销售量的4成。

欧贝亚

突然想到，根据以上的分析报告，现在（ＵＳＤ76。44）的油价，在refined过后的柴油应该只是ＭＹＲ1。90以内。再加上ＭＹＲ0。12的油站盈利空间，在ＭＹＲ2。05卖给消费者的时候应该是没有津贴了。